China's Roadmap
中國繪制經(jīng)濟路線圖
1. China is about to adopt its 11th five-year plan, setting the stage for the continuation of probably the most remarkable economic transformation in history. while improving the well-being of almost a quarter of the world's population. Never before has the world seen such sustained growth; never before has there been so much poverty reduction.
1、中國即將實施第十一個五年規(guī)劃。這是旨在造福于世界近1／4的人口，為或許是歷史上最為可觀的經(jīng)濟轉型的持續(xù)發(fā)展所做的準備。在世界范圍內這樣可持續(xù)的發(fā)展前所未見，如此大規(guī)模的脫貧亦史無前例。
2. Part of the key to China's long-run success has been its almost unique combination of pragmatism and vision. While much of the rest of' the developing world, following the Washington Consensus, has been directed at a quixotic quest for higher GDP, China has once again made clear that it seeks sustainable and more equitable increases in real living standards.
2、中國長期的成功發(fā)展，部分原因在于其近乎無可比擬地將遠見卓識與腳踏實地合而為一。華盛頓共識形成后，在其他發(fā)展中國家都不切實際地致力于提高國內生產(chǎn)總值時，中國再次重申，人民實際生活水平的持續(xù)、均衡提高，才是其追求的目標。
3. China realizes that it has entered a phase of economic growth that is imposing enormous—and unsustainable—demands on the environment. Unless there is a change in course, living standards will eventually be compromised. That is why the new five-year plan places great emphasis on the environment.
3、 中國意識到其經(jīng)濟發(fā)展已進入了給環(huán)境造成沉重負擔的階段，這個負擔甚至讓發(fā)展難以為繼。除非改變做法，否則將最終危及人民生活水平的提高。這也是新的五年規(guī)劃把環(huán)境問題當作重中之重的原因所在。
4. Even many of the more backward parts of China have been growing at a pace that would be a marvel, were it not for the fact that other parts of the country are growing even more rapidly. While this has reduced poverty, inequality has been increasing, with growing disparities between cities and rural areas, and between coastal regions and the interior.
4、即使中國許多更為落后的地區(qū)在以令人驚異的速度發(fā)展，也不能就此忽視這個國家的其他地區(qū)發(fā)展速度更為迅捷的事實。隨著城市和農村、沿海和內地差距的增大，在削減貧窮的同時，不平等也在加劇。
5. This year's World Bank World Development Report explains why inequality, not just poverty, should be a concern, and China's 11th five-year plan attacks the problem head-on. The government has for several years talked about a more harmonious society, and the plan describes ambitious programs for achieving this.
5、今年《世界銀行的世界發(fā)展報告》說明了人們?yōu)楹胃撽P注不平等問題，而不光是貧窮問題。中國第十一個五年規(guī)劃，也著手正面解決這個問題。近年來政府一直宣傳建立更和諧社會，第十一個五年規(guī)劃則描述了實現(xiàn)和諧社會的宏圖大計。
6. China recognizes, too, that what separates less developed from more developed countries is not only a gap in resources, but also a gap in knowledge. So it has laid out bold plans not only to reduce that gap, but to create a basis for independent innovation.
6、中國也認識到，落后國家和發(fā)達國家不僅在資源上存在著差距，在知識上也同樣有相當距離。因此中國制定了大膽的計劃，不僅要縮小這個差距，還要為獨立創(chuàng)新奠定基礎。
7. China's role in the world and the world's economy has changed, and the plan reflects this, too. Its future growth will have to be based more on domestic demand than on exports, which will require increases in consumption. Indeed, China has a rare problem: excessive savings. People save partly because of weaknesses in government social-insurance programs; strengthening social security （pensions） and public health and education will simultaneously reduce social inequalities, increase citizens' sense of well-being, and promote current consumption.
7、中國在全球和世界經(jīng)濟中扮演的角色已經(jīng)改變，這一點在五年規(guī)劃中也有所反映。中國未來的發(fā)展將不得不更多地依靠國內需求而非出口，這就需要擴大國內消費。的確，中國面對的問題十分罕見：那就是儲蓄過多。人們大量儲蓄的部分原因在于政府的社會保險計劃存在缺陷，強化社會保險（養(yǎng)老金）、公共衛(wèi)生和教育之際，亦將減少社會不平等，增強人們的幸福感并促進時下消費。
8. If successful—and, so far, China has almost always surpassed even its own high expectations—these adjustments may impose enormous strains on a global economic system that is already unbalanced by the US' huge fiscal and trade deficits. If China saves less—and if, as officials have announced, it pursues a more diversified policy of investing its reserves—who will finance the US trade deficit of more than US$2 billion a day? This is a topic for another day, but that day may not be far off.
8、一直以來，中國幾乎每次都能夠超額完成自己設定的最高日標。眼下的目標如果實現(xiàn)，這些調整可能會給因美國的巨額財政和貿易赤字導致本已失衡的全球經(jīng)濟體系帶來巨大壓力。如果中國的儲蓄減少，如果像其官方公布的，中國實行—種更多樣的儲蓄投資政策，那么誰將認購美國一天20多億美元的貿易赤字?這個問題目前似乎并非迫在眉睫，但我們距離那天已為時不遠。
9. With such a clear vision of the future, the challenge will be implementation. China is a large country, and it could not have succeeded as it has without widespread decentralization. But decentralization raises problems of its own.
9、中國對未來具有如此明確的遠見卓識，挑戰(zhàn)則在寸：如何貫徹落實。中國幅員遼闊，沒有廣泛的分權不會成功。但權力分散又會產(chǎn)生相應的問題。
10. Greenhouse gases, for example, are global problems. While the US says that it cannot afford to do anything about it, China's senior officials have acted more responsibly. Within a month of the adoption of the plan, new environmental taxes on cars, gasoline, and wood products were imposed: China was using market-based mechanisms to address its and the world's environmental problems.
10、例如，溫室氣體排放是個全球性的問題。在美國宣稱對此無能為力之時，中國高級官員表現(xiàn)了更負責任的行為。在規(guī)劃被采納后的一個月內，中國政府就對汽車、汽油和木制品征收了新的環(huán)境稅：中國正利用市場機制解決其自身和世界的環(huán)境問題。
11. But the pressures on local government officials to deliver economic growth and jobs will be enormous. They will be sorely tempted to argue that, "If the US cannot afford to produce in a way that preserves our planet, how can we?" To translate its vision into action, the Chinese government will need strong policies, such as the environmental taxes already imposed.
11、但這對要發(fā)展經(jīng)濟和創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會的地方官員造成巨大的壓力。他們會很自然地辯解說：“如果美國不能以環(huán)保方式生產(chǎn)，我們又怎么能夠做到?”為了把遠見變成行動，中國政府需要推行強有力的政策，已經(jīng)開始征收的環(huán)境稅即為一例。
12. As China has moved towards a market economy, it has developed some of the problems that have plagued the developed countries: special interests that clothe self-serving arguments behind a thin veil of market ideology.
12、隨著中國向市場經(jīng)濟過渡，一直困擾發(fā)達國家的問題也在中國顯現(xiàn)：在薄薄的市場意識的面紗后，隱藏著有自私自利企圖的特殊利益集團。
13. Some will argue for trickle-down economics: Don't worry about the poor, eventually everybody will benefit from growth. And some will oppose competition policy and strong corporate governance laws: Let Darwinian survival work its wonders. Growth arguments will be advanced to counter strong social and environmental policies: Higher gasoline taxes, for example, will kill our nascent auto industry.
13、有些人可能主張滴入式經(jīng)濟學；不必為窮人擔心，每個人最終都會從經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中獲益。有些人可能會反對競爭政策，反對強有力的企業(yè)監(jiān)管法律，主張讓達爾文進化論的適者生存顯現(xiàn)奇效。反對強化社會與環(huán)保政策的言論會日漸突出，比如有人會說，高額的燃油稅會扼殺我們新生的汽車工業(yè)。
14. Such allegedly pro-growth policies would not only fail to deliver growth; they would threaten the entire vision of China's future. There is only one way to prevent this: open discussion of economic policies in order to expose fallacies and provide scope for creative solutions to the many challenges facing China today. US President George W. Bush has shown the dangers of excessive secrecy and confining decision-making to a narrow circle of sycophants. Most people outside China do not fully appreciate the extent to which its leaders, by contrast, have engaged in extensive deliberations and broad consultations （even with foreigners） as they strive to solve the enormous problems they face.
14、然而，這些所謂的主張發(fā)展的政策不僅不能帶來發(fā)展，還會威脅到事關中國未來的完整的遠景規(guī)劃。阻止的辦法只有一個：那就是公開探討經(jīng)濟政策。只有這樣才能揭穿謬論，有可能為當今中國所面臨的諸多挑戰(zhàn)制定有創(chuàng)意的解決方案。美國總統(tǒng)喬治·W·布什暗箱操作，把決策權交給一小部分拍馬逢迎之徒的做法，已彰顯其害。相比這下，絕大多數(shù)外國人并不完全了解中國領導人在努力解決所面對的重大問題時，如何廣泛協(xié)商并多方聽取意見（甚至包括外國人的意見）。
15. Market economies are not self-regulating. They cannot simply be left on autopilot, especially if one wants to ensure that their benefits are shared widely. But managing a market economy is no easy task. It is a balancing act that must constantly respond to economic changes. China's 11th five-year plan provides a roadmap for that response. The world watches in awe, and hope, as the lives of 1.3 billion people continue to be transformed.
15、市場經(jīng)濟并非自我調整，不可以掛上自動檔就放手不管。如果想確保大部分人都能分享市場經(jīng)濟帶來的好處，就更不能放任自流。但管理市場經(jīng)濟不是輕松的任務，它是一種必須按照經(jīng)濟變化隨時進行調整的平衡之舉。中國第十一個五年規(guī)劃的藍圖，是對調整的適當回應。全世界以驚奇、期望的目光關注著13億中國人的生活持續(xù)發(fā)生的變化。
